OUTLOOK 2010-2011

2/2/2011

 

   Strong private consumption (60% of GDP) will still the motor of economic growth in 2010. This will support better economic growth in 2010-2011.

   Global economic improvements lately have affected on the improved performance of exports since the last quarter of 2009. Likewise, improvements in the Indonesian economy also supported higher import levels, especially imported capital goods, and this will support investment (as showed in November and December 2009).

   It is expected that new investment will start to increase in the first and second quarter of 2010, and should be higher than in 2009, even though not yet as high as the growth in 2008.

  Strong household and government consumption, together with improvements in exports as  a result of improved global economy and increased investment will boost further economic growth in 2010. We expect that the economic growth will be between 5.5% - 6% in 2010, and between 6% - 6.5% in 2011.

   Due to demand support and increased commodity prices, inflation is expected to increase slightly to between 6%-6.5% in 2010. The improvements in the supply side will start to take place in 2010, so this will help reduce inflation. In 2011 inflation will be back down to between 5%-6%.